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A win probability on every college football and NFL game we cover, a one page read you can print, and a public grade the week after. This week’s football is open below: no account, no email.

1,475

graded picks, all sports

64.0%

how often our tennis pick won

3

free picks on the board today

943 of 1,475 settled picks won, across tennis, cricket and UFC. Tennis: 880 of 1,375 · Cricket: 30 of 51 · UFC: 27 of 42 · the full chart

This week’s free Gameplan

Free this week · College football · Week 1, 2026 · September 6

The Louisville Cardinals vs Ole Miss Rebels Gameplan

One printable page: our 68% on Ole Miss Rebels, and what that number becomes from any score at the end of the first quarter, the half, the third, and late in the fourth.

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College Football

Drew’s Desk

A college football expert picks the week, and our model’s call sits beside his on every game.

Week 1, 2026 · 90 picks

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Latest picks

Como predictions, September 2, 2026: Arnaboldi vs. Varillas

By The Maiden Desk · September 2, 2026 · 1 pick1-0 on the day

Previews and picks for Arnaboldi vs. Varillas — every pick graded after the fact.

US Open predictions, September 3, 2026: Monfils vs. Tien, Gauff vs. Badosa

By The Maiden Desk · September 3, 2026 · 27 picks

Previews and picks for Monfils vs. Tien, Gauff vs. Badosa, Aliassime vs. Khachanov, Tararudee vs. Noskova, and more — every pick graded after the fact.

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This week in college football

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College Football · Week 1, 2026 · By Sparks

Best College Football Games, Week 1 2026

The 5 biggest games of week 1, with our win probability on every one we have a number on — and a straight answer on the one we do not.

4 previewed with a prediction · 1 we have no call on

This week in the NFL

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NFL · Week 1, 2026 · By Sparks

Best NFL Games, Week 1 2026

The 5 biggest games of week 1, with our win probability on every one.

5 previewed with a prediction

Next up in the UFC

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UFC · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · By Sparks

The five fights worth watching at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

Who wins, how each one likely ends, and the call we make loudest.

5 bouts previewed, a number on every one · 1 since scrubbed from the card

Recent results

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Earlier picks

US Open predictions, September 1, 2026: Jodar vs. Kokkinakis, Fery vs. Musetti

By The Maiden Desk · September 1, 2026 · 22 picks19-2 on the day

Previews and picks for Fery vs. Musetti, Gea vs. Cerundolo, Tiafoe vs. Damm, Gauff vs. Sonmez, and more — every pick graded after the fact.

Como predictions, September 1, 2026: Feldbausch vs. Soto, Krumich vs. Wild

By The Maiden Desk · September 1, 2026 · 4 picks2-1 on the day

Previews and picks for Feldbausch vs. Soto, Krumich vs. Wild, Jianu vs. Squire, Ajdukovic vs. Brancaccio — every pick graded after the fact.

US Open predictions, August 31, 2026: Fils vs. Tsitsipas, Shelton vs. Griekspoor

By The Maiden Desk · August 31, 2026 · 51 picks37-14 on the day

Previews and picks for Fils vs. Tsitsipas, Shelton vs. Griekspoor, Tien vs. Borges, Nakashima vs. Baez, and more — every pick graded after the fact.

Como predictions, August 31, 2026: Kumstat vs. Varillas, Dodig vs. Poljicak

By The Maiden Desk · August 31, 2026 · 4 picks2-1 on the day

Previews and picks for Kumstat vs. Varillas, Dodig vs. Poljicak, Bueno vs. Silva, Arnaboldi vs. Bondioli — every pick graded after the fact.

Porto 2 predictions, August 31, 2026: Coppejans vs. Monteiro, Batalla vs. Kolar

By The Maiden Desk · August 31, 2026 · 2 picks1-1 on the day

Previews and picks for Coppejans vs. Monteiro, Batalla vs. Kolar — every pick graded after the fact.

All earlier picks →

Tournaments we're covering

Why accuracy alone isn’t the test

A desk that only picks huge favorites looks great and says nothing. The real test is whether our percentages hold up — when we say 70%, does it win 70% of the time? See the full chart, including where we’ve run overconfident.

The four questions people actually ask

Why would I pay when the picks are free?
You would not, for the picks. Pro is coverage and timing: every game on the board rather than a share of it, and on college football, a printable Gameplan for every pick plus the gameday re-read before kickoff. The same numbers, more of them, sooner.
How do I know the numbers mean anything?
Because the calibration is public and you can slice it. A desk that shows only a win rate is showing you the flattering half. Ours shows how often each confidence band actually landed.
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Any charge is refundable in full for 14 days, no questions asked, and cancelling takes one click. $7 a month, or $70 a year.
Is this a tipping service?
No. We publish probabilities and grade them, we do not sell winners, and we have measured that our picks do not beat the closing line. Nothing here is sold as an edge.

How the picks are made

For tennis, we rate players by surface and play the match out point by point, thousands of times. For UFC, our model rates both fighters — age, reach, style, form — and makes its own call: who wins, and how it ends — knockout, submission, or decision. For cricket, we price a side and project a first-innings total before a ball is bowled — pre-toss, no exceptions. For college football, we fit power ratings to more than a decade of results and publish a calibrated win probability for every game we have a call on — and say nothing when we don’t. The numbers are published before each match, and every preview on this site is generated from them — no hindsight edits, ever. The full methodology is written for humans.

Week 1 is the cheapest week to start reading us.

Every football number we publish from here is graded the week after. Start with the free board and judge the record as it fills in.

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